July Data Insights: New Metrics Drive Slight Trend Stabilization Amid Industry Challenges

Sep 04, 2024
WASHINGTON, DC

 

With the release of the July data, the SipSource platform has been enhanced, adding new capabilities to provide a more comprehensive view. In addition to volume data, subscribers and contributors can now search by revenue, accounts sold, and points of distribution. These updates bring a richer, multi-dimensional view to the database, and these new metrics have been incorporated into this month’s highlight report.

 

Stabilizing Trends in July

July saw a slight stabilization in trends, aided by two additional shipping days. Spirits experienced year-over-year growth with a +3.4% increase in volume and +3.8% in revenue. In contrast, wine declined by -0.9% in volume and -0.2% in revenue.

 

Despite these improvements, both spirits and wine continued to decline on a 12-month rolling basis. Spirits volume decreased by -2.9%, a slight improvement from June’s -3.3%. Wine declined by -7.7%, showing a 40 basis point improvement from the previous month. Both categories benefited from stable macroeconomic conditions, with inflation holding steady and indications that the Fed may lower interest rates soon.

 

Breaking Down Spirits Trends

Product class trends in spirits remained largely unchanged, with cocktails moderating to +6.7% growth, up+ 0.2% from the previous 12-month period. Tequila also posted a modest +0.2% gain, growing +2.6%, making it one of the few product classes in the black. Tequila continues to dominate in revenue share, gaining +1.2% in 12-month rolling revenue.

 

Within Tequila, the top-performing segments were Reposado (+16.9%), Anejo (+8.1%), and Other Tequilas (+0.1%). While premiumization remains a lagging trend, performance varies significantly by product class. Points of distribution declined across most categories, with Cocktails (+3.5%) and Canadian Whisky (+3.2%) being the exceptions.

 

Wine’s Performance

Wine saw some improvement in July due to extra shipping days, but the only product class with positive 12-month trends was Cocktails (+0.7%). On a revenue basis, Cocktails improved by +7.3%, albeit from a small base. The best-performing segment in the wine category was Prosecco, which grew by +1.7%. However, points of distribution for wine were down by -6.6%, with pink wines leading the decline.

 

Outlook for the Rest of 2024

Looking ahead, the outlook for the rest of 2024 remains cautious. Shipping days will remain consistent for the rest of the year (107), so they won’t provide the same boost seen in July. Inventory management will continue to be a challenge, and the ongoing battle for shelf space is something to keep an eye on.

 

As the final months of the year approach, trends will continue to be monitored, and updates will be provided. Stay tuned for more insights as 2024 comes to a close.