Washington, D.C., 03/14/2025 - The latest SipSource Forecast offers forward-looking insights into the wine and spirits industry, providing quarterly projections of rolling 12-month 9L case depletion growth rates from Q1 2025 through Q1 2026. Covering seven major categories and all core spirits (excluding RTDs), the report delivers class- and class-price tier-level views based on the most comprehensive wholesaler depletion data in the industry.
The forecast leverages the most comprehensive data set in the industry, anchored on being the only source with real depletion data from 19 major wholesalers as well as numerous external macroeconomic and demographic indicators. In partnership with beverage experts from consulting firm Kearney, this underlying data is analyzed using custom machine learning-backed prediction algorithms. The resulting forecasts provide an unparalleled ability to detect changes in a volatile market before they happen. Notably, the latest Q3 refresh achieved >90% accuracy in predicting Q4 2024 depletion rates across most product classes.
Key 2025 Forecast Takeaways:
- All Core Spirits rolling 12-month depletion growth rates are projected to decline from -4% in early 2025 to -4.32% by Q4 2025, a slight improvement from previous forecasts.
- Rum, U.S. Whiskey, and Vodka are expected to stabilize in negative territory by the end of 2025, departing from sharp drops in 2022-2024.
- Tequila/Agave is forecasted to slow to near-flat growth by year-end 2025, following a sharp downturn in Q4 2024.
Note: This forecast does not include adjustments for potential U.S. trade policy changes. The forecast includes both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The "pessimistic" rolling 12-month forecast scenario has been updated to account for possible adverse impacts from trade policy.
What to dive deeper with a SipSource Analyst? Contact Eric Schmidt at Eric.Schmidt@wswa.org.